Look-ahead-safe macro state from FREE FRED data + a scheduled high-impact event calendar. Phase 0 — observability / shadow only: this page changes no trades, places no orders, and is separate from the results site. State as of 2026-07-20 · generated 2026-07-20 13:39 UTC.
Re-chartered (v2) — 2026-07-21. The risk-on/off dial below is the superseded Phase-1 framing. Phase 1 proved this market-wide risk / gross-exposure dial is a NO-GO as a de-risking overlay: it is genuinely orthogonal to the crypto price gate (a GO for not double-counting) but reduces no out-of-sample drawdown on the already market-neutral crypto ensemble and bleeds ~4pp CAGR — it de-risks into the calm periods it cannot protect. A correct answer to the wrong question. The Lighthouse has been re-chartered as an offensive, directional, thematic macro / event strategy for stocks & ETFs: detect a shock → go long the main beneficiary → propagate to the enabler / dependency chain (war → oil↑ → long energy + defense + midstream), while flagging the losers to avoid. MVP = a free, PIT-clean commodity-shock event study, not yet built; honest expectation is a thin edge or a null (one defensible kernel: Cohen-Frazzini economic-link lead-lag). The dashboard below is retained as the macro-observability / shock-detection input layer — not a trading dial. Full charter: docs/lighthouse/charter_v2_thematic.md.
Current macro state
Risk-on / off dial
Risk-ON
composite z +0.66 · diffusion 100% of 4 legs risk-on
dial, last ~14 months
Growth × inflation quadrant
Stagflation (Quad 3)
Growth slowing, inflation accelerating — worst for risk
Growth (CFNAI 3m-avg)
-0.03
Δ3m -0.07 · slowing
Inflation (CPI YoY)
3.7%
Δ3m +0.41% · accelerating
Advisory gross (shadow)
1.03×
not wired to trading
Risk-on / off dial — the legs
Each leg is a stress gauge, sign-aligned so + = risk-on, shown as a trailing ~3y rolling z-score. The dial is the tanh of the equal-weight mean of the available legs. Signs and contributions are shown so the reading is fully reconstructable — nothing is a black box.
Signal
Level
z (3y)
sign
risk-on contrib
as of
tier
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index anfci · index (0 = average, + = tighter)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) vix · annualized vol %
16.73
-0.14
−
+0.14
2026-07-16
A
trailing level
Broad trade-weighted US Dollar broad_usd · index
120.50
-0.49
−
+0.49
2026-07-10
B
trailing level
Context — shown, not in the dial
Deliberately excluded from the dial to avoid double-counting (NFCI ≈ ANFCI) or over-reading a slow regime flag (the curve is not a timer). The 5y5y forward is a PIT-clean market cross-check on the revised, lagged realized CPI.
Signal
Level
z (3y)
sign
risk-on contrib
as of
tier
National Financial Conditions Index nfci · index (0 = average, + = tighter)
-0.54
-1.33
−
+1.33
2026-07-10
Arevised
Yield curve (10y minus 2y) curve_10y2y · percentage points
Curated 2026 schedule (Fed / BLS / BEA / Deribit). Markets price the level and trade only the surprise, and the print is HFT-captured in milliseconds — so the realistic Phase-2 use is an event de-risk switch, not a directional bet.
9dFOMC decision FOMC2026-07-29 · 14:00 ET
11dPCE / Core PCE (June) PCE2026-07-31 · 08:30 ET
18dEmployment (July NFP) NFP2026-08-07 · 08:30 ET
23dCPI (July) CPI2026-08-12 · 08:30 ET
39dPCE / Core PCE (July) PCE2026-08-28 · 08:30 ET
46dEmployment (August NFP) NFP2026-09-04 · 08:30 ET
53dCPI (August) CPI2026-09-11 · 08:30 ET
58dFOMC decision (+ SEP dots) FOMC2026-09-16 · 14:00 ET
67dPCE / Core PCE (August) PCE2026-09-25 · 08:30 ET
67dCrypto quarterly options expiry CRYPTO_EXPIRY2026-09-25 · 08:00 UTC
74dEmployment (September NFP) NFP2026-10-02 · 08:30 ET
85dCPI (September) CPI2026-10-13 · 08:30 ET
100dFOMC decision FOMC2026-10-28 · 14:00 ET
102dPCE / Core PCE (September) PCE2026-10-30 · 08:30 ET
109dEmployment (October NFP) NFP2026-11-06 · 08:30 ET
115dCPI (October) CPI2026-11-12 · 08:30 ET
Look-ahead safety. Every series is indexed to its approximate release date (reference date + a documented publication lag) and joined backward, so the state at any date uses only what was public by then. Series marked revised (ANFCI, NFCI, CFNAI, CPI) are restated by FRED in place; Phase 1 swaps in true ALFRED as-of vintages so historical states use first-print values, never today's revisions.